China Records Lowest Birth Rate Since 1949 – 2025 Population Decline

China is facing a growing population crisis. In 2025, the number of children born in the country fell by 17%, marking the lowest birth rate since 1949. According to government data, only 7.9 million children were born in 2025, compared to 9.4 million in 2024, a decline of 1.5 million births in a single year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s total population decreased from 1.339 billion to 1.4049 billion in 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive year of population decline, excluding the famine of 1959-61, representing the largest annual drop in decades.

Statistics show that the birth rate fell to 5.63 per thousand in 2025, while the fertility rate is estimated at around 1, well below the 2.1 rate required to maintain a stable population.

Why is the population declining?

Experts point to a growing gap in marriage among young people as a major factor. Marriages fell by nearly 20% in 2024, directly affecting the birth rate. Although temporary improvements are expected in 2025 due to relaxed marriage regulations, economic pressures, expensive education, the cost of raising children, and the career sacrifices required of women remain key reasons for declining fertility, according to Su Yu, Principal Economist at a China-focused economic intelligence unit.

The situation is further exacerbated by China’s rapidly aging population. Currently, 23% of the population is over 60, and this number is projected to reach 400 million by 2035, reducing the labor force and increasing pressure on pension and healthcare systems. To address the issue, the government has implemented policies such as allowing two and three children per family, providing 3,600 yuan subsidies per child, tax incentives on contraceptives, and tax exemptions for daycare and matchmaking services. Nevertheless, experts believe that without deep structural reforms, curbing the declining birth rate will remain challenging.