India to Become Upper-Middle-Income Country by 2030

India’s economy is rapidly progressing, and recent projections provide further good news. According to a report by SBI Research, India is expected to become an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and the third-largest economy by 2028. For the decade ending 2024, India ranks in the 95th percentile of global growth distribution.

The World Bank classifies countries based on per capita Gross National Income (GNI). Between 1990 and 2024, the number of high-income and upper-middle-income countries increased. India took 60 years to move from a low-income country to a lower-middle-income country in 2007. Per capita GNI increased from $90 in 1962 to $910 in 2007, representing a CAGR of 5.3%. During these 60 years, India also reached a $1 trillion economy.

Post-independence, India took 60 years to reach $1 trillion. Between 2014 and 2021, it achieved $2 trillion and $3 trillion milestones, respectively. By 2025, India will reach $4 trillion, and in the next ~2 years, it is projected to reach $5 trillion. In terms of per capita income, India achieved $1,000 in 2009, $2,000 in 2019, and is expected to reach $3,000 by 2026 and $4,000 by 2030, joining China and Indonesia in the upper-middle-income classification.

GDP Growth Trends

India’s GDP growth over the last decade shows strong momentum. Its average real GDP growth percentile in cross-country distribution has increased from the 92nd to the 95th percentile over 25 years. These indicators show that India is on track to become an upper-middle-income country, with a per capita GNI threshold of approximately $4,500. Achieving this will require a nominal GDP growth of around 11.5%, which is considered achievable.