It is important to keep
inflation in line with the target
- Dr. Jayantilal Bhandari
Certainly, even after
the festival of Diwali, inflation has increased due to the high prices of
onion, potatoes and other vegetables in November and the prices of edible oil
also remaining high. Recently, State Bank of India Research has said in its
report that retail inflation has increased due to the increase in food prices
in the country at this time. The report said that inflation in rural areas has
increased more than in urban areas. Inflation has also increased due to the
increase in the prices of various commodities being imported into the country
from abroad. In such a situation, the Reserve Bank of India can keep the
interest rate stable for a long period in view of inflation control. It is
important that under the current financial year 2024-25, despite the status quo
of interest rates by the Reserve Bank, the government's inflation control
measures, good monsoon and a good base of stable supply chain, the government
will have to move forward with a new multi-dimensional strategy in view of the
challenge of keeping retail inflation within the range of 4.5 percent in line
with the target.
It is worth noting that according to the data published
by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on 14 October Retail inflation was
recorded at 5.49 percent in September 2024 , which
was 3.65 percent in August . Nearly 36 percent increase in the
prices of potatoes , onions , tomatoes along with green vegetables and expensive pulses
in the month of September The retail inflation rate of food items rose to a
nine-month high of 9.24 percent , which was 5.66 percent in the month of August
. The wholesale inflation rate also rose in September due to the rise in the
prices of food items . reached 1.84
percent which is the It was 1.31 percent in the month of August . Retail and wholesale inflation is mainly seen due to the increase in the prices of food
products , other manufacturing , motor vehicles , machinery and
equipment manufacturing etc. The situation is that due to
the prices of potatoes , onions and tomatoes not
coming down, the retail inflation rate which has crossed 5% may cross 5% this
month in November as well .
We have to worry about inflation in the country because
there is a possibility of increase in the prices of crude oil in the global
market due to the West Asia conflict. Since Iran is one of the largest crude
oil producers in the world and this country is located in the sensitive areas
of West Asia. In such a situation, petrol , diesel and other
petroleum products will start getting expensive when the prices of crude
oil increase rapidly due to instability in Iran's oil market. This will
especially affect India , because India is dependent on imports
for about 80 percent of its oil needs . Another matter of concern is that the conflict between
Iran and Israel can also affect global shipping routes , especially the Strait of
Hormuz. This is a very important route for global traffic. About one-third of
the world's oil and most of the food and agricultural products are transported
through this route. In such a situation, disruption of shipping in this region
can affect the global supply chain. This can further increase the prices of
food items such as wheat , sugar and other agricultural products .
In such a situation, now once again the government will have
to move forward on the path of a new multi-dimensional strategy to control
inflation . In this context, in the Credit Policy Committee meeting of the
Reserve Bank of India on 9 October, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said
that in view of the risk of rising inflation in India, no change is being made
in interest rates . This is the 10th consecutive time that the Reserve Bank has
not changed the repo rate. The repo rate remains at 6.50 percent and the bank
rate has been kept stable at 6.75 percent. In this monetary policy review
meeting, priority has been given to inflation control instead of fast growth
rate. Now it seems that even after two months in December 2024 , RBI will not
be in a position to cut interest rates.
Certainly this time the country will get food grains, pulses
and vegetables due to good monsoon. The production of oilseeds will increase and their prices
will come down as their supply increases. There is no doubt that various
measures including monetary management and prompt food grain export policy and
stock limit fixation by the government will be able to control the rising inflation
. In this context, it is also worth mentioning that on October 16, the Union
Cabinet has made a huge increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the
Rabi crops of crores of farmers of the country, which will benefit the farmers
suffering from inflation in rural areas. Also, the increase of three percent in
the dearness allowance of central employees by the government will provide
relief to the employees from inflation. According to Union Agriculture Minister
Shivraj Singh Chauhan The arrangements made under the budget for the current
financial year 2024-25 to control food
inflation are being implemented rapidly. Under the budget, Rs 10,000 crore has been given to
the Department of Consumer Affairs for the Price Stabilization Fund (PSF) .
While this fund will be used to maintain buffer stock of pulses , onions and potatoes, if
necessary, this fund can also be used to control the increased prices of these
other food items. Apart from this, under the budget of the
current financial year, the amount of loans for food storage and warehousing
for the Food and Public Distribution Department has been doubled to Rs 50,000 crore this year .
Definitely Foods To stop inflation, the government will
have to focus on long-term measures along with immediate measures. At this
time, priority will have to be given to improving the supply chain of
perishable agricultural products in rural India , which play a major role in the fluctuations of food
inflation. In such a situation, the government will have to move forward on an effective strategy of multi-dimensional efforts
to stop the wastage of agricultural produce along with increasing
food production . Since 12 to 14 percent of food grains and about 35 percent of
vegetable and fruit production gets wasted due to lack of proper post-harvest
arrangements in the country, in such a situation , to stop this wastage, we
will have to move on the path of effective food storage and warehousing .
We hope that
with these various strategic efforts, retail inflation in the country can be
controlled and retail inflation will be seen to remain within the range of 4.5
percent in the current financial year 2024-25 as per the target and four
percent in the coming year 2025-26. While such a situation will provide relief
to the common man of the country, the economy will also get momentum.
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